Commodity Rally Puts Focus on Key Correlations to Watch
The rally in commodity prices is bolstering the outlook for emerging-market currencies but the backdrop it provides for stocks is more nuanced due to the risks from higher inflation, strategists said.
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index is at the highest level since 2012 and more gains are expected as the world pulls out of the pandemic. The trend is a big help for some emerging-market currencies, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Gaurav Patankar said. Societe Generale SA said the climb signals economic strength that overall supports stocks despite risks to profit margins. The cost of everything from copper to corn has surged, adding to inflationary pressures and forcing investors to weigh up the implications for other assets. Complicating the outlook is the possibility that further big jumps may lead policy makers to taper the exceptional stimulus buoying markets in general.
The Bloomberg index of commodities is up 65% over the past year, while a gauge of global stocks has advanced 48% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index some 10%. Vaccine rollouts and government policy support are stoking the global economic recovery.
The raw materials index and the currency gauge are moving in tandem more now than at the start of 2021, when a measure of 30-day correlation between the two came close to turning negative. In contrast, the correlation between global stocks and commodities is declining.
Still, the traditional though sometimes disputed role of equities as an inflation hedge continues to draw strategists and investors. In bonds, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields have climbed more than 70 basis points this year. But the debt selloff paused in April despite a strong month for commodities, as investors mulled whether price pressures will be transitory- ummmm…they won’t be.
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