Wednesday, January 19, 2022
HomeNewsRussia NewsRussian economy in 2022: low base effect {can't} support GDP growth

Russian economy in 2022: low base effect {can’t} support GDP growth

MOSCOW, December 28. /TASS/. {Growth of Russia’s GDP by {the finish} of 2022 will {decelerate} to about 2.|Growth of Russia’s GDP by {the ultimate} end of 2022 will {decelerate} to about 2.}5% {and can} not reach {the state} forecast, while annual inflation will still exceed {the prospective|the mark} and the 5% mark, {in accordance with} a consensus forecast {published by} TASS {predicated on} a survey of analysts.

{The primary} risk factors for the Russian economy remain {exactly the same}: anti-coronavirus restrictions, monetary policy tightening, commodity prices, {and also|along with|in addition to} low rates of vaccination. {In 2021 all figures {aside from} inflation improved {following the} weak year of 2020,|Year of 2020 in 2021 all figures {aside from} inflation improved {following the} weak,} {however in} 2022 Russian economy, {it’ll} {no more} grow {from the} “low base”.

GDP

{In accordance with} experts interviewed by TASS, Russia’s GDP growth in 2022 {will undoubtedly be} approximately 2.5%. {The state} forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2022 is 3%.

“GDP growth {will undoubtedly be} negatively influenced mainly by external shocks, {in addition to} whether the business {can} {adjust to} the tightening of monetary policy both in Russia and {all over the world}. {{Up to now} it is {training},|{So it’s} working out far,} but who knows,” Managing Director of the National Rating Agency Sergey Grishunin said.

Head of the macroeconomic analysis department at Finam Olga Belenkaya also believes that the growth of the Russian economy {will undoubtedly be} largely {dependant on} the international situation {and can} follow the global trend. “In 2022, {inside our} baseline scenario, {the planet} economy will {continue steadily to} grow at {a comparatively} high pace (but {less than} in 2021), OPEC+ oil output will {continue steadily to} recover, {that may|that will} support the export-oriented sectors of the Russian economy,” she said.

Inflation

{Nearly all} experts, {unlike {the federal government} and {the lender} of Russia,|unlike the national government and {the lender} of Russia,} {think that} inflation in 2022 will decline from {the existing} 8%, {but still {won’t} meet the target.|but {won’t} {meet up with the} target still.} According to consensus, {by {the finish} of next year,|year by {the finish} of next,} {the figure shall reach 5.}1%.

“{Based on the} Bank of Russia, the inflation rate should drop to 4-4.5% by {the finish} of 2022, {but this scenario seems unlikely,}” Head of {the guts} for Strategic Research Vladislav Onishchenko said. In his opinion, {achieving the} target seems more realistic in 2023 at {the initial}, provided {you can find} no new shocks in the global economy.

The expected stabilization of commodity prices, restoration of supply chains, {tightening of monetary and budgetary policies in Russia and {the planet},|tightening of monetary and budgetary policies in Russia and the global world,} {along with the} opening of borders for foreign tourism, may support slowing inflation in 2022, {in accordance with} Chief Analyst at Sovcombank Mikhail Vasilyev.

Ruble

{The entire year} 2022 {will undoubtedly be} as calm for the ruble exchange rate as 2021 – {in accordance with} experts, the Russian currency {will stay} stable.

“{In comparison to} previous years, {the Russian currency in 2021 showed low volatility relatively,} {benefiting from} the prevailing growth in commodity prices. {{The common} ruble exchange rate {because of this} year is {likely to} be around 74 rubles per dollar.|Year is {likely to} be around 74 rubles per dollar {the common} ruble exchange rate {because of this}.} Next year, {{the common} exchange rate {will likely} shift to {the number} of 75-78 rubles per dollar,|{the common} exchange rate shall {probably} shift to {the number} of 75-78 rubles per dollar,}” Onishchenko said. In his opinion, {the growth potential {of several} commodities is virtually exhausted.|the growth potential {of several} commodities is exhausted virtually.}

Experts from HSE University agree – the dynamics of the ruble {lately} {have already been} strongly influenced by geopolitical factors {of a} new round of tensions with Ukraine and concerns {concerning the} introduction of Western financial sanctions. As geopolitical tensions subside, economic factors {should be expected} to dominate, they suggest.

Real income

{Virtually all} interviewed experts found it difficult to predict {the true} disposable income of {the populace} for 2022. {In accordance with} Finam, {growth in real incomes of {the populace} will reach 1.|growth in real incomes of {the populace} shall reach 1.}5-2%, while Alfa Capital expects to see 4-5% growth.

RELATED ARTICLES

Leave a Reply

Most Popular

Recent Comments